All things Canadian.....

If Canada beats Mexico they will advance to the next round.

If they lose to Mexico then, assuming the US beats South Africa, all three teams will have 2-1 records.

The first tiebreaker format in this tournament is:

Ties shall be broken in the following order of priority:
- The team that defeated the other tied team head-to-head in a given Round shall be ranked higher in the pool standings for such Round.
- The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings for that Round according to fewest runs allowed divided by the number of innings (including partial innings) played in defense in the games in that Round between the teams tied.
- The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to fewest earned runs allowed divided by the number of innings (including partial innings) played in defense in the games in that Round between the teams tied.
- The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings according to highest batting average in games in that Round between the teams tied.
- Standings shall be determined by the drawing of lots, conducted by WBCI.

Currently the runs allowed for each team are:
Mexico: 6
US: 8
Canada: 14

So - it's basically a must win game for Canada. 8pm EST.

UPDATED after discussion with co-worker - didn't notice this part of the tiebreaker:

The tied teams shall be ranked in the standings for that Round according to fewest runs allowed divided by the number of innings (including partial innings) played in defense in the games in that Round between the teams tied.

So...

Currently the runs allowed for each team are:

Mexico: 2
Canada: 6
US: 8

So this means that Canada has to hold Mexico to 1 run if they don't win.

If Mexico wins 2-0 then the next tiebreaker comes into effect - earned runs. I don't know... but the WBC site does I guess:

Canada advances:
• If it wins Thursday in its game against Mexico, finishing Pool play with a perfect 3-0 record.
• If it loses Thursday against Mexico, but allows two runs or less.