Sleepy thoughts
What's going to happen? I'll tell you.
Cabinet will be much smaller.
Accountability Act first - before any budget.
The budget must contain the GST reduction and childcare allowance. The other measures - defence spending, capital gains tax, transit/sport tax credits - will be negotiated with the Liberals/NDP/Bloc. Harper will not work with only one party - he might shut out the Bloc somewhat though during discussions in order to show their 'impotence'.
Crime bill and Patient Wait Times Guarantee will come after the budget. The guarantee will need to be negotiated with the provinces - over the summer?
I'd guess they'll want to bring the SSM vote before the house in the spring. It won't be close.
Considering the Quebec election in 2007, I expect that Harper will want to give Charest some ammunition to stop the PQ. I'd guess that in the fall they'll start working on the fiscal imbalance issue and have something to sign in the first half of 2007.
The Bloc won't want a federal election before the provincial one - they can't risk another loss of momentum. That means Harper will get two budgets in if he wants.
The Liberals will have a new leader for the fall session. Harper may, I think mainly depending on the Quebec situation, engineer his governments defeat next winter. Neuter the Bloc prior to the Quebec provincial election and campaign on his key promises that he's delivered.
A majority Conservative government will follow on the strength of 40 Quebec seats and a few gains in Ontario. Charest will be re-elected in Quebec a couple of months later.
Harper starts constitutional talks in 2008 and Quebec signs later that year.
Cabinet will be much smaller.
Accountability Act first - before any budget.
The budget must contain the GST reduction and childcare allowance. The other measures - defence spending, capital gains tax, transit/sport tax credits - will be negotiated with the Liberals/NDP/Bloc. Harper will not work with only one party - he might shut out the Bloc somewhat though during discussions in order to show their 'impotence'.
Crime bill and Patient Wait Times Guarantee will come after the budget. The guarantee will need to be negotiated with the provinces - over the summer?
I'd guess they'll want to bring the SSM vote before the house in the spring. It won't be close.
Considering the Quebec election in 2007, I expect that Harper will want to give Charest some ammunition to stop the PQ. I'd guess that in the fall they'll start working on the fiscal imbalance issue and have something to sign in the first half of 2007.
The Bloc won't want a federal election before the provincial one - they can't risk another loss of momentum. That means Harper will get two budgets in if he wants.
The Liberals will have a new leader for the fall session. Harper may, I think mainly depending on the Quebec situation, engineer his governments defeat next winter. Neuter the Bloc prior to the Quebec provincial election and campaign on his key promises that he's delivered.
A majority Conservative government will follow on the strength of 40 Quebec seats and a few gains in Ontario. Charest will be re-elected in Quebec a couple of months later.
Harper starts constitutional talks in 2008 and Quebec signs later that year.
