The Conservatives will win the next election 
Oh Alan, 'Yoda', and 'farmer's daughter'!

These commenters have written the common refrain we read in our morning papers and on our local radios. 'Stephen Harper and the Conservatives have stalled in the polls. His summer barbecue tour failed to produce results'


Stalled in the polls? Fine. Failed to produce results? Whatever.

These types of statements that you read in the Globe and Mail are very leading. They imply of course that not improving in national polls is a failure - end of story. It's lazy reporting.

Why do you think that the impressive fundraising numbers produced by the party at the national level isn't claimed in the media as a successful result of Harper's leadership? I don't need to answer that.

The real strength behind the Conservative Party can be read on some blogs. If you haven't been reading Garth Turner's blog - The Turner Report - then you are missing out on some real grassroots politicking.

In yesterday's entry, he hits the nail right on the head:

The ever-fickle polls have shifted back in favour of the Liberals, which is hard to believe given the lingering whiff of scandal, Paul Martin's dithering, an excessive budget deal with the NDP, higher interest rates, gas at over a dollar a liter and a weakening economy. Meanwhile some Conservatives have decided this is a great time to eat the leader, which is exactly what the media feasts on.
So, should a guy like me - a professional candidate who has given up most of his income and all his professional life to knock on people's doors - be feeling down? Disillusioned? In limbo?
Hell no. I'm actually having a great time. Here in Halton we have an ever-growing brigade of volunteers who are passionately committed to winning the riding. We have had good success at raising money, and have a hectic program of events lined up for the next couple of months. There are three more Town Hall meetings looming, and every night that I am out canvassing brings more supporters, helpers, sign locations and encouragement.
There appears to be a massive disconnect between what you read in the Toronto Star and what people in their homes are actually saying and believing. As I have written here before, I can find no nest of Liberals in this riding. Oh, yeah, the odd person claims to be a supporter of the Grits and even more rarely do I find someone who knows the name of the local Liberal MP and says they like him.
My conclusion for several months has been that voting Liberal here - and probably across most of the 905 and 416 regions - has been a default for people. For years, small-c Conservatives were split, and then in 2004, the party was unproven. Despite that, the Conservative candidate in Halton, who was not a well-known political figure, did extremely well in that election. Now, with five months of campaigning under my belt, with a huge organization, with weekly local media coverage, with financial backing and with almost 4,000 doorbells rung by the end of this week, well, you get the picture.
The local Liberal is toast.
Meanwhile, I have every confidence that my colleagues who are doing what I am in other ridings will also win. The Liberals are a discredited bunch who deserve to be thrown form office. I do not say that merely because I am a partisan, but because the current government is making huge and fundamental mistakes.
Federal spending last year increased by $20 billion, or a stunning 15% - more than five times the rate of inflation. Despite that, the government took in over $9 billion more than it spent, which shows how massively over-taxed Canadians are. The $5 billion in extra spending caused by the NDP coalition budget had the effect, as predicted, of raising interest rates and the cost of every business loan, line of credit and variable rate mortgage in the country. Tax on tax on gas tax has Canadians paying excessive amounts for energy, which is going to hurt consumer spending. Liberal ministers and appointees, from Pierre Pettigrew to David Dingwall, are spending taxpayer money like they own it. The economy is starting to unravel, which is definitely not what homeowners need. The government says it might start taxing income trusts, hurting hundreds of thousands of investors. And we are just a few months away from the release of the Gomery report, which will show us in graphic terms the scandals and corruption surrounding the wasting of hundreds of millions of dollars in Quebec.
So, with Liberals ahead in the polls and Conservatives shooting at each other in the media, if you were Paul Martin, what would you do?
Exactly. Which is why this week we are getting a campaign office.
Locally you can see momentum building for Conservatives. Our candidate Keith Fountain and the riding association have revived the Ottawa-Centre Breakfast Speaker series with Hugh Segal speaking in October and Garth Turner coming up the following month. (Details here)

Keith was also at Carleton University a couple of weeks ago where the campus Conservative club recruited over 100 new members.

National polling data doesn't change over 3 summer months. Coming to any type of prediction to the party's future results in an upcoming election based on these polls is ridiculous.

People opinions of Stephen Harper may be far from overwhelming right now but what is key in my mind is that you no longer hear the Liberal fear-mongering words like 'scary' and 'radical'. You'll hear critics claim he's uninspiring or angry but these types of negatives can be easily addressed and conquered during a campaign.

The Conservative Party has been growing since it merged and when an election is called the worker bees of this party will produce results. We will win many more seats in Ontario and if we gain elsewhere in the country the Conservative will form the next government.

I honestly believe they will.

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