Where is the Conservative Freefall?
Ipsos Poll:
And using the magic seat projection tool and the regional numbers from the poll we get the following results based on last week's numbers:
| Parties | June 28,2004 | April 26-28, 2005 | May 3-5,2005 | May 10-12, 2005 | May 16-18, 2005 | June 14-16, 2005 | Movement From Last Poll | Since 2004 Election |
| Conservative Party | 30% | 33% | 31% | 31% | 28% | 29% | +1% | -1% |
| Liberals | 37% | 30% | 32% | 27% | 34% | 34% | 0% | -3% |
| New Democratic Party | 16% | 17% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 16% | -1% | 0% |
| Bloc Quebecois | 12% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 12% | -2% | 0% |
| Green Party | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 0% | +2% |
And using the magic seat projection tool and the regional numbers from the poll we get the following results based on last week's numbers:
| Conservative | Green Party | Liberal | N.D.P. | Bloc Québécois | Totals | |
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 2 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| Prince Edward Island | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 |
| Nova Scotia | 3 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
| New Brunswick | 2 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| Quebec | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 67 | 75 |
| Ontario | 24 | 0 | 77 | 5 | 0 | 106 |
| Manitoba | 5 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| Saskatchewan | 6 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| Alberta | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 28 |
| British Columbia | 12 | 0 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 36 |
| The North | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| Totals | 82 | 0 | 139 | 20 | 67 | 308 |
So, the Conservatives would lose seats to the Liberals in BC, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba. BQ gain in Quebec of course.
Ontario? No change since the election.
Discuss.
