A question 
If the Conservatives got a majority, would a 'Traditional Marriage' Bill pass?

Andrew Spicer got me thinking about it so I ran a scenario where the Tories rock Ontario and actually get a majority government. How would the SSM votes change?

I'm going guess that for this Tory majority, Ontario breaks down 77 for the Conservatives, 17 Liberal, and 12 NDP. Pretty far-fetched but it's really the only way for Harper to get a majority in the short term.

I'm assuming all the other provinces and their MPs votes on SSM remain relatively the same after an election.

Of the 35 Liberal votes against SSM, 23 of them came from Ontario. According to my numbers, 16 of those 23 seats would go to the Conservatives and 1 to the NDP. So, of those ridings, you probably have a net gain for SSM of at least 1 seat.

Of the pro-SSM Ontario Liberals, 37 of them would lose their seats to the Conservatives.

In order to make up the different in the House of Commons - 140 members against at last count I believe, 16 of those 37 new Conservative MPs would have to vote for the Conservative proposal. A reasonable assumption.

So, I take back my comments on Andrew Spicer's blog - if the Conservatives actually got a majority government, I think the Conservative proposal for legislating the traditional definition of marriage would probably pass.

Did that make any sense at all?

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