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Decima/Pollara poll 
Some Liberal supporters think the Decima poll was good news for Martin. The national results were:
Liberals - 32 (+5 from 4/25 poll)
Cons - 29 (-3 from 4/25)
NDP - 20 (-1
from 4/25)
BQ - 15 (unchanged)

I commented the following:
I think the Ontario numbers were pretty good for the Tories - only 4% behind the Liberals.
From the article:
"Among respondents who said they are certain to vote, the Conservatives actually held a marginal advantage over the Liberals, 30 per cent to 29. The NDP polled 21 per cent among this group of dedicated voters.
And in Ontario, Decima found the Liberals with a four-point lead over the Tories, 39 per cent to 35. Anderson noted the Liberals could only claim a minority in last June's election despite a 20-point lead in Ontario prior to the campaign."

The election vote in Ontario was this:
Liberal 45%, 75 seats
Conservative 32%, 26 seats
N.D.P. 18%, 7 seats
Green Party 4%

The decima numbers, with the vote %, and I'm estimating the NDP and Green support, project to the following:
Liberal 39%, 54 seats
Conservative 35%, 41 seats
N.D.P. 20%, 11 seats
Green Party 6%

Losing 20 seats in Ontario with the 15 they'd lose in Quebec isn't good news for the Liberals.

I just heard there was a Pollara poll out today - from Bourque:

Pollara: Con 36% Lib 31% Ndp 17% Bq 15%

Now that's interesting - I'll have to see if there are any regional numbers.

UPDATE: More info on the Pollara poll courtesy of Spector:
According to the POLLARA survey, the Liberals are ahead in vote-rich Ontario, where 41 per cent of voters support Mr. Martin's party, compared to 36 per cent who would vote Conservative. That strength is rooted in Toronto, where the Liberals stand at 48 per cent and the Tories have 31-per-cent support. In the rest of Ontario, however, the Tories have a "competitive" edge -- with 40-per-cent support, compared to the Liberals' 36 per cent.”

# posted @ 5/04/2005 08:59:00 a.m.

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