What seemed impossible only 3 months ago...
I posted the tables below in mid February - poll numbers (we were thinking a May 16 election at that time) that would lead to a Conservative minority. With the Quebec numbers being worse for the Liberals now things change a wee bit - the Conservatives don't need quite the number of seats in the other regions as they would otherwise have needed. One thing that stands out in the latest poll - the numbers in Atlantic Canada need to improve for the Conservatives.
Also, while it would be a Conservative minority in the house, it doesn't mean it would be a Conservative minority government as they would have to arrange something with another party.
(Note that I was using the 301 seat house)
Also, while it would be a Conservative minority in the house, it doesn't mean it would be a Conservative minority government as they would have to arrange something with another party.
| Date: | Feb 16, 2004 | May 16, 2004
|
| Firm: | Ipsos-Reid | Cons Minority
|
| Quebec
| ||
| Lib. | 31 | 38
|
| Con. | 10 | 10
|
| N.D.P. | 8 | 8
|
| B.Q. | 39 | 38
|
| Ontario
| ||
| Lib. | 41 | 36
|
| Con. | 26 | 35
|
| N.D.P. | 22 | 24
|
| West
| ||
| Lib. | 25 | 30
|
| Con. | 39 | 49
|
| N.D.P. | 20 | 20
|
| Atlantic
| ||
| Lib. | 47 | 42
|
| Con. | 32 | 33
|
| N.D.P. | 12 | 19
|
| Quebec | Ontario | West | Atlantic | Total
| |
| Lib. | 32 | 52 | 16 | 16 | 116
|
| Con. | 0 | 46 | 64 | 12 | 122
|
| N.D.P. | 0 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 20
|
| B.Q. | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43
|
(Note that I was using the 301 seat house)
