Ontario poll 
Today in the Post:

"The Conservatives are now virtually neck-and-neck in Ontario at 39% to the Liberals' 42%. Only in Toronto do the Liberals hold a strong lead.

"In the electoral heartland of Ontario, the Liberals face new competition from the Conservatives that they have not experienced in many seasons," Mr. Winn said. "For sure the Conservatives will not be shut out in Ontario this time," he said, adding there is a very good chance the Tories will pick up seats in Eastern Ontario and in the suburban ring outside Toronto.


In addition to anger over the provincial budget -- where the Liberals imposed a health care "premium" on taxpayers after pledging not to raise taxes -- Mr. Winn said Ontario voters could be reacting to a series of negative Liberal advertisements that attack Mr. Harper.

He noted that Ontarians have a recent history of responding negatively toward the source of attack ads, not their target. When Ernie Eves unveiled a series of commercials targeting Dalton McGuinty last fall, Tory fortunes plummeted and the Liberals rode to a strong majority win.

"There's ample evidence these kinds of ads can backfire," Mr. Winn said."

Is this real - 39% for the Tories and 42% for the Liberals - that's an almost unbelievable swing from the poll taken last week and released by Ipsos this week:

"In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 49% support (unchanged), with the Conservatives following at 27% (up 1 point), with the NDP trailing at 17% (up 1 point)."

The COMPAS numbers represent about 40 seats going to the Conservatives in Ontario. That should light some fires under all the parties in this province.

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