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Answering Jay 
Mr. Jardine asks "Whaddya say Don? Do I have to vote NDPinko just to extract the well-planted Liberal tush from this seat or do the united Cons even have a shot here?"

Well, here's my analysis of the Ottawa Centre riding...

The numbers from 2000 (transposed to the 2004 election boundries) were this:

Lib.22141
N.D.P.13228
Alliance9919
P.C.7349


If I take the latest Ipsos-Reid poll (May 7) we see the following numbers in Ontario as a whole compared to the 2000 election:

Ontario2000 Election
Lib.51.4
C.A.23.6
P.C.14.4
N.D.P.8.2


OntarioMay 7 Poll
Lib.48
Con.26
N.D.P.20


Now, translating these numbers into voter movement I calculate the following:

Lib.N.D.P.Con.
Lib.to0.990.000.00
P.C.to0.000.760.24
N.D.P.to0.001.000.00
Allianceto0.000.001.00

And the resulting vote would be:

Lib.21996
N.D.P.18947
Con.11694

which doesn't look good for Mike Murphy and the Conservatives in the riding and would lead to another Liberal victory with Ed and the NDP finishing a strong second place.

What has to happen for the Conservatives in order for them to win is to see voter movement look like this:

Lib.N.D.P.Con.
Lib.to0.750.100.15
P.C.to0.000.300.70
N.D.P.to0.001.000.00
Allianceto0.000.001.00

resulting in...

Lib.16606
N.D.P.17647
Con.18384


Is it possible? Well, it would mean the NDP vote would have to fall from it's current level in Ontario - of course including Ed's popularity here. While NDP support could drop provincially, the rise of Ed fever in Ottawa - I actually saw an Ed car flag on the Queensway this morning - will keep Ed way above the provincial numbers. Unless something dramatic happens - and I ain't talking about questionable endorsements - Ed will dramatically raise the NDP vote.

Perhaps if the Liberal support fails completely the Conservatives would have a chance. Mahoney can be connected to the sponsorship scandal and is a rookie.

The other thing to consider -
Can you stragetically vote for a differenct party knowing that with the new election law that you are giving that party campaign funds? Sure, it's only a dollar and a half but, in this case, that could contribute to another orange sign on your street in 2009!

Conclusion - don't make up your mind yet but if you are determined to see the Liberal candidate lose you better start mentally preparing yourself for putting an 'X' beside Broadbent.

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