Answering Jay
Mr. Jardine asks "Whaddya say Don? Do I have to vote NDPinko just to extract the well-planted Liberal tush from this seat or do the united Cons even have a shot here?"
Well, here's my analysis of the Ottawa Centre riding...
The numbers from 2000 (transposed to the 2004 election boundries) were this:
If I take the latest Ipsos-Reid poll (May 7) we see the following numbers in Ontario as a whole compared to the 2000 election:
Now, translating these numbers into voter movement I calculate the following:
And the resulting vote would be:
which doesn't look good for Mike Murphy and the Conservatives in the riding and would lead to another Liberal victory with Ed and the NDP finishing a strong second place.
What has to happen for the Conservatives in order for them to win is to see voter movement look like this:
resulting in...
Is it possible? Well, it would mean the NDP vote would have to fall from it's current level in Ontario - of course including Ed's popularity here. While NDP support could drop provincially, the rise of Ed fever in Ottawa - I actually saw an Ed car flag on the Queensway this morning - will keep Ed way above the provincial numbers. Unless something dramatic happens - and I ain't talking about questionable endorsements - Ed will dramatically raise the NDP vote.
Perhaps if the Liberal support fails completely the Conservatives would have a chance. Mahoney can be connected to the sponsorship scandal and is a rookie.
The other thing to consider -
Can you stragetically vote for a differenct party knowing that with the new election law that you are giving that party campaign funds? Sure, it's only a dollar and a half but, in this case, that could contribute to another orange sign on your street in 2009!
Conclusion - don't make up your mind yet but if you are determined to see the Liberal candidate lose you better start mentally preparing yourself for putting an 'X' beside Broadbent.
Well, here's my analysis of the Ottawa Centre riding...
The numbers from 2000 (transposed to the 2004 election boundries) were this:
| Lib. | 22141
|
| N.D.P. | 13228
|
| Alliance | 9919
|
| P.C. | 7349
|
If I take the latest Ipsos-Reid poll (May 7) we see the following numbers in Ontario as a whole compared to the 2000 election:
| Ontario | 2000 Election
|
| Lib. | 51.4
|
| C.A. | 23.6
|
| P.C. | 14.4
|
| N.D.P. | 8.2
|
| Ontario | May 7 Poll
|
| Lib. | 48
|
| Con. | 26
|
| N.D.P. | 20
|
Now, translating these numbers into voter movement I calculate the following:
| Lib. | N.D.P. | Con.
| ||
| Lib. | to | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.00
|
| P.C. | to | 0.00 | 0.76 | 0.24
|
| N.D.P. | to | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00
|
| Alliance | to | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00
|
And the resulting vote would be:
| Lib. | 21996
|
| N.D.P. | 18947
|
| Con. | 11694
|
which doesn't look good for Mike Murphy and the Conservatives in the riding and would lead to another Liberal victory with Ed and the NDP finishing a strong second place.
What has to happen for the Conservatives in order for them to win is to see voter movement look like this:
| Lib. | N.D.P. | Con.
| ||
| Lib. | to | 0.75 | 0.10 | 0.15
|
| P.C. | to | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.70
|
| N.D.P. | to | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00
|
| Alliance | to | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00
|
resulting in...
| Lib. | 16606
|
| N.D.P. | 17647
|
| Con. | 18384
|
Is it possible? Well, it would mean the NDP vote would have to fall from it's current level in Ontario - of course including Ed's popularity here. While NDP support could drop provincially, the rise of Ed fever in Ottawa - I actually saw an Ed car flag on the Queensway this morning - will keep Ed way above the provincial numbers. Unless something dramatic happens - and I ain't talking about questionable endorsements - Ed will dramatically raise the NDP vote.
Perhaps if the Liberal support fails completely the Conservatives would have a chance. Mahoney can be connected to the sponsorship scandal and is a rookie.
The other thing to consider -
Can you stragetically vote for a differenct party knowing that with the new election law that you are giving that party campaign funds? Sure, it's only a dollar and a half but, in this case, that could contribute to another orange sign on your street in 2009!
Conclusion - don't make up your mind yet but if you are determined to see the Liberal candidate lose you better start mentally preparing yourself for putting an 'X' beside Broadbent.
