Spreadsheet Scandal
Posted to Jim Elve's Group Election Blog.
The AG has reported that there are serious flaws with my predictions. After looking at my treatment of undecided voters (brought on by Colby Cosh's post yesterday) I realized I wasn't doing what I had intended.
Basically, I was punishing those parties that had less than their popular vote in the 2000 election (Cons in the West, Liberals in Ontario) and inflating the parties that had improved on their numbers from the election (NDP in Ontario notably).
Here is the revised seat count based on the Feb 16th poll - a slim Liberal majority - helped mainly by an Atlantic Canada rout.
Also, in a post yesterday, I had presented poll numbers that would result in a Conservative minority government - it changes slightly and is shown below:
I'll be sending out the corrected spreadsheet.
The AG has reported that there are serious flaws with my predictions. After looking at my treatment of undecided voters (brought on by Colby Cosh's post yesterday) I realized I wasn't doing what I had intended.
Basically, I was punishing those parties that had less than their popular vote in the 2000 election (Cons in the West, Liberals in Ontario) and inflating the parties that had improved on their numbers from the election (NDP in Ontario notably).
Here is the revised seat count based on the Feb 16th poll - a slim Liberal majority - helped mainly by an Atlantic Canada rout.
| Quebec | Ontario | West | Atlantic | Total
| |
| Lib. | 23 | 87 | 17 | 27 | 154
|
| Con. | 0 | 13 | 61 | 5 | 79
|
| N.D.P. | 0 | 3 | 13 | 0 | 16
|
| B.Q. | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52
|
Also, in a post yesterday, I had presented poll numbers that would result in a Conservative minority government - it changes slightly and is shown below:
| Date: | Feb 16, 2004 | May 16, 2004
|
| Firm: | Ipsos-Reid | Cons Minority
|
| Quebec
| ||
| Lib. | 31 | 38
|
| Con. | 10 | 10
|
| N.D.P. | 8 | 8
|
| B.Q. | 39 | 38
|
| Ontario
| ||
| Lib. | 41 | 36
|
| Con. | 26 | 35
|
| N.D.P. | 22 | 24
|
| West
| ||
| Lib. | 25 | 30
|
| Con. | 39 | 49
|
| N.D.P. | 20 | 20
|
| Atlantic
| ||
| Lib. | 47 | 42
|
| Con. | 32 | 33
|
| N.D.P. | 12 | 19
|
| Quebec | Ontario | West | Atlantic | Total
| |
| Lib. | 32 | 52 | 16 | 16 | 116
|
| Con. | 0 | 46 | 64 | 12 | 122
|
| N.D.P. | 0 | 5 | 11 | 4 | 20
|
| B.Q. | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 43
|
I'll be sending out the corrected spreadsheet.
