Presenting the Polls
Posted to Jim Elve's Group Election Blog.
The poll that came out on the weekend came with the headline “Overall Vote Stabilizes: Liberals at 36%”. While this is true, it is not the overal vote that counts - it's the regional numbers.
The poll breakdown looks like this - comparing the last few polls:
Putting the latest poll into the prediction tool shows the Liberal drops in Atlantic Canada and Quebec have caused them to lose 11 seats over the last poll.
It would seem unlikely that the Bloc would be able to hold the 14 point lead over the Liberals for any period of time but with the Conservatives getting some traction in Ontario and the Liberals still doing fairly well in the West does Martin still call an early election?
The poll that came out on the weekend came with the headline “Overall Vote Stabilizes: Liberals at 36%”. While this is true, it is not the overal vote that counts - it's the regional numbers.
The poll breakdown looks like this - comparing the last few polls:
| Date: | 13-Feb | 16-Feb | 20-Feb
|
| Firm: | Ipsos-Reid | Ipsos-Reid | Ipsos-Reid
|
| Quebec
| |||
| Lib. | 40 | 31 | 30
|
| Con. | 5 | 10 | 10
|
| N.D.P. | 8 | 8 | 9
|
| B.Q. | 39 | 39 | 44
|
| Ontario
| |||
| Lib. | 47 | 41 | 46
|
| Con. | 25 | 26 | 29
|
| N.D.P. | 22 | 22 | 18
|
| West
| |||
| Lib. | 25 | 25 | 27
|
| Con. | 32 | 39 | 37
|
| N.D.P. | 19 | 20 | 24
|
| Atlantic
| |||
| Lib. | 42 | 47 | 39
|
| Con. | 33 | 32 | 36
|
| N.D.P. | 19 | 12 | 18
|
Putting the latest poll into the prediction tool shows the Liberal drops in Atlantic Canada and Quebec have caused them to lose 11 seats over the last poll.
| Quebec | Ontario | West | Atlantic | Total
| |
| Lib. | 15 | 92 | 20 | 16 | 143
|
| Con. | 0 | 10 | 58 | 12 | 80
|
| N.D.P. | 0 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 18
|
| B.Q. | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 60
|
It would seem unlikely that the Bloc would be able to hold the 14 point lead over the Liberals for any period of time but with the Conservatives getting some traction in Ontario and the Liberals still doing fairly well in the West does Martin still call an early election?
