Where are the NDP seats going to come from?
It's been a common refrain that with Jack Layton the NDP will improve their standing in the House of Commons after the next election. James Bow has actually predicted that the NDP will be the Official Opposition with a house that will look like this:
Liberal 226
NDP 29
Conservative 28
BQ 25
Now, while he doesn't say that this prediction is a result of too much food and drink during the holidays....
but to get 29 seats in the House the NDP will need to make some major inroads in a number of regions.
To begin with, there is no hope in Quebec to get a sniff at a seat.
In the West, the latest poll that came from Ipsos-Reid would have to hold through to an election as it is the only way for the Conservative party would to drop to a seat count less than 30. The poll showed only 31% support for the Conservative Party compared to 35 for the Liberals and 22 for the NDP. This is 10% improvement for the latter two parties since the election. This would give the NDP 14 seats from the West - huge jump to be sure.
Could the Conservative Party support really fall to 60% of their 2000 election numbers? I doubt it. The new party's support in BC seems to be the issue - they polled very poorly in that province and it will be a key battleground in the next six months.
In Atlantic Canada, the NDP have slipped in the polls to 11% - a drop that would see them win no seats. They will have to greatly improve in that region to get back to their 16% support they saw during the election. To improve on their 4 seats they will need to take a big chuck of the former PC's and woo over Liberal voters. Can they do it with the urban focus they appear to be leaning towards - the mainly rural ridings of the East might not be that receptive to the Ontarian Layton.
Which leads to Ontario where the NDP are hoping for a rebound from their miserable 1 seat performance in 2000. To get more than 10 seats in Ontario, the NDP would need to get all the PC votes, 15% of the Liberal voters and the same from those that voted Alliance - only poaching from the Liberals would improve the Conservative outcome (a left side vote spit). This seems overly optimistic from my perspective.
There has been a renewal in the NDP but not the sort that will see them becoming a force in the House after this year's election.
Liberal 226
NDP 29
Conservative 28
BQ 25
Now, while he doesn't say that this prediction is a result of too much food and drink during the holidays....
but to get 29 seats in the House the NDP will need to make some major inroads in a number of regions.
To begin with, there is no hope in Quebec to get a sniff at a seat.
In the West, the latest poll that came from Ipsos-Reid would have to hold through to an election as it is the only way for the Conservative party would to drop to a seat count less than 30. The poll showed only 31% support for the Conservative Party compared to 35 for the Liberals and 22 for the NDP. This is 10% improvement for the latter two parties since the election. This would give the NDP 14 seats from the West - huge jump to be sure.
Could the Conservative Party support really fall to 60% of their 2000 election numbers? I doubt it. The new party's support in BC seems to be the issue - they polled very poorly in that province and it will be a key battleground in the next six months.
In Atlantic Canada, the NDP have slipped in the polls to 11% - a drop that would see them win no seats. They will have to greatly improve in that region to get back to their 16% support they saw during the election. To improve on their 4 seats they will need to take a big chuck of the former PC's and woo over Liberal voters. Can they do it with the urban focus they appear to be leaning towards - the mainly rural ridings of the East might not be that receptive to the Ontarian Layton.
Which leads to Ontario where the NDP are hoping for a rebound from their miserable 1 seat performance in 2000. To get more than 10 seats in Ontario, the NDP would need to get all the PC votes, 15% of the Liberal voters and the same from those that voted Alliance - only poaching from the Liberals would improve the Conservative outcome (a left side vote spit). This seems overly optimistic from my perspective.
There has been a renewal in the NDP but not the sort that will see them becoming a force in the House after this year's election.
