NDP in Toronto
In John Ivison's column today in the National Post he states:
"There will be those in the Liberal party, arrogant in their convictions about their own invulnerability, who will merely shrug their shoulders. But if that is the case, they probably do not represent ridings in the Greater Toronto Area. One source said internal Liberal polling shows Dennis Mills, Maria Minna, Tony Ianno and Jean Augustine would all lose their seats to NDP candidates, should an election be held now."
This seems a little strange to me when I look at the numbers from the last election:
Of these four ridings, Mills losing to a Layton challenge and the Trinity-Spadina riding falling to the NDP would seem to be possible. The other two ridings however for the NDP?
In the Beaches-East York riding, Minna won by 13000 votes. In Etobicoke--Lakeshore, the NDP only receive 6.7% of the vote!
What is interesting is that Ivison states that this information came from a source who used internal Liberal polling numbers. I also came across a Globe article by John Ibbitson which talks about some of the controvesy for Liberal nominations in some ridings - from this article:
"But of the 20 or so ridings where incumbent MPs are considered at risk from internal challenges, more than half of those challenged are women. Their numbers include (but are not limited to) Jean Augustine (Etobicoke-Lakeshore), Sarmite Bulte (Parkdale-High Park), Marlene Catterall (Ottawa West-Nepean), Sheila Copps (Hamilton East), Raymonde Folco (Laval West), Sophia Leung (Vancouver Kingsway), Maria Minna (Beaches-East York), Carolyn Parrish (Mississauga Centre), Beth Phinney (Hamilton Mountain) and Paddy Torsney (Burlington)."
So, is this information given to Ivison that these ridings could fall to the NDP real or is it backroom politics to influence Liberal nominations?
"There will be those in the Liberal party, arrogant in their convictions about their own invulnerability, who will merely shrug their shoulders. But if that is the case, they probably do not represent ridings in the Greater Toronto Area. One source said internal Liberal polling shows Dennis Mills, Maria Minna, Tony Ianno and Jean Augustine would all lose their seats to NDP candidates, should an election be held now."
This seems a little strange to me when I look at the numbers from the last election:
| Beaches--East York |
| |
| Alam | Alliance | 3838
|
| Minna | Lib. | 22515
|
| Watkins | N.D.P. | 8936
|
| Clutterbuck | P.C. | 5766
|
| Trinity--Spadina |
| |
| Monaco | Alliance | 2250
|
| Ianno | Lib. | 20032
|
| Valpy | N.D.P. | 16001
|
| Polko | P.C. | 2309
|
| Etobicoke--Lakeshore |
| |
| Court | Alliance | 9160
|
| Augustine | Lib. | 22467
|
| Banigan | N.D.P. | 2835
|
| Haslam | P.C. | 8453
|
| Toronto--Danforth |
| |
| Butryn | Alliance | 3021
|
| Mills | Lib. | 20330
|
| Turtle | N.D.P. | 10830
|
| Dyson | P.C. | 3138
|
Of these four ridings, Mills losing to a Layton challenge and the Trinity-Spadina riding falling to the NDP would seem to be possible. The other two ridings however for the NDP?
In the Beaches-East York riding, Minna won by 13000 votes. In Etobicoke--Lakeshore, the NDP only receive 6.7% of the vote!
What is interesting is that Ivison states that this information came from a source who used internal Liberal polling numbers. I also came across a Globe article by John Ibbitson which talks about some of the controvesy for Liberal nominations in some ridings - from this article:
"But of the 20 or so ridings where incumbent MPs are considered at risk from internal challenges, more than half of those challenged are women. Their numbers include (but are not limited to) Jean Augustine (Etobicoke-Lakeshore), Sarmite Bulte (Parkdale-High Park), Marlene Catterall (Ottawa West-Nepean), Sheila Copps (Hamilton East), Raymonde Folco (Laval West), Sophia Leung (Vancouver Kingsway), Maria Minna (Beaches-East York), Carolyn Parrish (Mississauga Centre), Beth Phinney (Hamilton Mountain) and Paddy Torsney (Burlington)."
So, is this information given to Ivison that these ridings could fall to the NDP real or is it backroom politics to influence Liberal nominations?
