All things Canadian.....

There has been much discussion of whether or not Harper can lose, how the vote split, especially in Ontario, would affect a Clement or Stronach bid. The rules for the vote have been discussed - here at POGGe - so I thought I'd dust off Excel and figure out how Harper could lose.

Each riding is given 100 points.
The number of 'points' needed to win: 15400 (I'm assuming they are using the 308 ridings)

Region	Percentage of First Pick Selections
	Harper	Clement	Stronach
West	80	10	10
Ontario	30	35	35
Quebec	30	35	35
Atlantic	30	35	35
First Ballot Points	13990	8405	8405

Last place contestant is taken off the ballot - their second choices are then considered. The following table uses the second choice selection to determine the number of points on the second ballot.

	% of Clement Supporters 2nd Choice		% of Stronach Supporters 2nd Choice
	Harper	Stronach	Harper	Clement
West	25	75	25	75
Ontario	15	85	15	85
Quebec	15	85	15	85
Atlantic	15	85	15	85
Second Ballot Points	15346	15454	15346	15454

The alternative candidate wins. While I think the first table represents a reasonable prediction, the second table would represent a very large "anyone but Harper" movement within the delegates.

Note: If you want to play around with the numbers, e-mail me and I'll send you the spreadsheet.