Riding Calculator
I had a little bit of time at work today so I worked on a spreadsheet to simulate the number of seats each party would receive as voters moved from one party to another.
The first thing I tried was what impact the PC voters would have on the seat distribution. I took the biggest assumption possible that all voters would vote the same as 2000 except the PCs and they would either choose the Liberals or the Conservatives. Here are the results:
% of PC -- Cons. Seats
0 ------------ 63
10 ----------- 63
20 ----------- 65
30 ----------- 67
40 ----------- 68
50 ----------- 69
60 ----------- 74
70 ----------- 83 <-- McLellan and Pratt lose their seats
80 ----------- 93
90 ----------- 101
100 ---------- 114 <-- Liberal minority government
The spreadsheet is pretty cool - I split it up into four regions (Quebec, Ontario, West, Atlantic) so you can play with how the vote will change in each.
Other disclaimers - all parties other than the 5 main ones were eliminated and those voters were ignored - I didn't have enough time to code it perfectly.
If you want the sheet, send me an e-mail - its about 300KB.
The first thing I tried was what impact the PC voters would have on the seat distribution. I took the biggest assumption possible that all voters would vote the same as 2000 except the PCs and they would either choose the Liberals or the Conservatives. Here are the results:
% of PC -- Cons. Seats
0 ------------ 63
10 ----------- 63
20 ----------- 65
30 ----------- 67
40 ----------- 68
50 ----------- 69
60 ----------- 74
70 ----------- 83 <-- McLellan and Pratt lose their seats
80 ----------- 93
90 ----------- 101
100 ---------- 114 <-- Liberal minority government
The spreadsheet is pretty cool - I split it up into four regions (Quebec, Ontario, West, Atlantic) so you can play with how the vote will change in each.
Other disclaimers - all parties other than the 5 main ones were eliminated and those voters were ignored - I didn't have enough time to code it perfectly.
If you want the sheet, send me an e-mail - its about 300KB.
