More fun with Excel
Using the lastest poll from Ipsos-Reid and comparing it to the November 2000 election I ran the riding calculator.
Here are the poll numbers:
And the resulting seat distribution:
How come?
Liberal support is much improved in the west as well as the NDP getting support from the Conservatives. The PC support in Ontario is showing up for the Liberals based on this poll. In Quebec, there were so many close ridings that a 4% drop in BQ support is huge. For the Atlantic provinces, the PC support appears to have gone a third to the Liberals and two thirds to the Conservative party so far which, combined with the NDP drop, gives the Liberals a lot more seats in those provinces.
Here are the poll numbers:
| Date: | Nov-00 | 15-Dec-03
|
| Firm: | Election | Ipsos-Reid
|
| Quebec
| ||
|---|---|---|
| Lib. | 44.2 | 45
|
| Con. | 6.2 | 5
|
| N.D.P. | 1.8 | 9
|
| B.Q. | 39.9 | 36
|
| Ontario
| ||
| Lib. | 51.4 | 60
|
| Con. | 23.6 | 23
|
| N.D.P. | 8.2 | 10
|
| West
| ||
| Lib. | 25.4 | 35
|
| Con. | 49.6 | 31
|
| N.D.P. | 12.4 | 22
|
| Atlantic
| ||
| Lib. | 40.7 | 50
|
| Con. | 10.2 | 29
|
| N.D.P. | 16.5 | 11
|
And the resulting seat distribution:
| Quebec | Ontario | West | Atlantic | Total
| |
| Lib | 45 | 103 | 52 | 28 | 228
|
| Con | 0 | 0 | 25 | 4 | 29
|
| N.D.P | 1 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 15
|
| B.Q | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29
|
| Total | 75 | 103 | 91 | 32 | 301
|
How come?
Liberal support is much improved in the west as well as the NDP getting support from the Conservatives. The PC support in Ontario is showing up for the Liberals based on this poll. In Quebec, there were so many close ridings that a 4% drop in BQ support is huge. For the Atlantic provinces, the PC support appears to have gone a third to the Liberals and two thirds to the Conservative party so far which, combined with the NDP drop, gives the Liberals a lot more seats in those provinces.
